La production mondiale de céréales devrait atteindre un niveau record de 2.961 millions de tonnes en 2025, selon les dernières prévisions publiées par l’Organisation des Nations Unies pour l’alimentation et l’agriculture (FAO).
Ce chiffre marque une hausse de 3,5 % par rapport à l’année précédente, portée par des perspectives favorables pour le maïs au Brésil et aux Etats-Unis, a précisé la FAO dans son nouveau bulletin sur l’offre et la demande de céréales.
La production de céréales secondaires, incluant le maïs et le sorgho, est désormais estimée à 1.601 millions de tonnes, soit une hausse 5,9 % par rapport à l’année précédente, tandis que celle du riz devrait progresser de 1,0 % pour atteindre 555,5 millions de tonnes.
En revanche, la FAO a légèrement abaissé ses prévisions pour le blé, à 804,9 millions de tonnes, ce chiffre dépasse quand même d’environ 8% celui de l’année dernière, note la même source.
L’utilisation mondiale de céréales sur la campagne 2025-2026 est attendue à 2.922 millions de tonnes, soit une hausse de 1,6 % par rapport à la campagne précédente, en partie sous l’effet de l’augmentation attendue de l’utilisation du maïs et du blé pour l’alimentation animale et la production d’aliments pour l’aquaculture.
Les stocks mondiaux de céréales devraient augmenter de 3,7 % pour culminer à 898,7 millions de tonnes d’ici fin 2026, portant le ratio stocks/utilisation à 30,6 %, un niveau jugé confortable par l’agence onusienne
Les échanges internationaux devraient également progresser de 1,4 %, atteignant 493,4 millions de tonnes, portés par une forte demande en blé en Chine, au Pakistan, en Syrie et en Turquie, ainsi que par des importations de riz en hausse au Bangladesh, au Ghana et en Guinée-Bissau.
Parallèlement, le bulletin mensuel du Système d’information sur les marchés agricoles (AMIS), également alerté sur la hausse des prix des engrais azotés, qui deviennent moins abordables dans plusieurs régions.
Cette évolution pourrait affecter les rendements agricoles à moyen terme, prévient l’agence onusienne.
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