mbourbé dans les polémiques, doublées de résultats décevants et d’une chute vertigineuse du titre en Bourse, Facebook affrontait jeudi une forte tempête et son horizon financier semblait bien assombri.
L’action du premier réseau social au monde a dévissé jeudi dès les premiers échanges à Wall Street.
Vers 16H40 GMT, le titre valait 177,44 dollars, soit une chute de 18,40%. A ce niveau, cela correspond à une perte de plus de 115 milliards de dollars de capitalisation boursière, ce qui serait un record.
Cette chute abyssale intervient au lendemain de la publication de résultats décevants au deuxième trimestre tandis que ses responsables prévenaient que le ralentissement devrait se poursuivre.
Le directeur financier du groupe Dave Wehner a prévenu lors d’une conférence téléphonique avec des analystes que la croissance des revenus avait déjà “ralenti” au deuxième trimestre et qu’elle continuerait à ralentir assez nettement aux prochains trimestres.
Preuve de l’effet catastrophique de ces annonces, l’analyste Brent Thill (Jefferies & Co.) a relevé au cours de cet appel que “beaucoup d’investisseurs ont du mal à comprendre le ralentissement (…). On dirait que son ampleur est inédite”.
Selon Facebook, ce ralentissement résulte en partie d’une nouvelle approche concernant les données personnelles et la sécurité –au coeur du scandale Cambridge Analytica (CA) qui a éclaté mi-mars– mais le groupe de Mark Zuckerberg semblait aussi reconnaître les limites de la croissance par la publicité, qui fournit la quasi-totalité de ses revenus.
– Besoin d’humains –
Pour Richard Windsor, analyste chez Radio Free Mobile, ces perspectives ne devraient pourtant pas surprendre.
“Il est devenu de plus en plus difficile de se développer à des taux si élevés quand un groupe atteint cette taille”, écrit-il sur son blog.
L’analyste ajoute que Facebook est forcé de recruter davantage de personnel pour gérer les tâches comme le filtrage de contenus inappropriés non repérés par l’intelligence artificielle.
“Les faiblesses dans l’IA force (Facebook) à continuer à engager des humains pour faire le travail que les machines sont incapables de faire”, explique-t-il.
Pour Brian Wieser, expert chez Pivotal Research, Facebook semble avoir atteint un “plafond” dans la croissance de ses revenus par la publicité.
Ross Gerber, analyste chez Gerber Kawasaki, voit dans ces chiffres la preuve que le vent tourne pour les réseaux sociaux. “Ils ont atteint leur pic”, a-t-il tweeté.
– La déception –
Jusqu’à mercredi, l’action de Facebook avait atteint des records. Les investisseurs semblaient ignorer les inquiétudes liées au scandale des données personnelles, notamment les enquêtes sur la fuite de telles informations vers la firme britannique Cambridge Analytica (CA).
Mais les résultats ont déçu.
Le chiffre d’affaires bien qu’en hausse de 42% à 13,2 milliards de dollars est en-dessous des attentes des analystes. Avec 2,23 milliards d’usagers actifs mensuels, Facebook fait à peine plus que fin mars et, là aussi, c’est moins que ce qu’anticipaient les marchés.
“Nous investissons tellement dans nos systèmes de sécurité que cela va commencer à avoir un effet sur notre rentabilité, nous commençons à le voir ce trimestre”, a tenté de justifier Mark Zuckerberg, après avoir passé des mois à tenter de redorer le blason de Facebook dans le sillage de l’affaire CA.
Certains analystes se voulaient néanmoins plutôt rassurants, expliquant que le groupe avait peut-être simplement averti du pire scénario possible.
“La compagnie a des antécédents de réajustement de la croissance du chiffre d’affaires et des prévisions de dépenses, seulement pour prendre le contrepied et dépasser ces attentes au trimestre suivant”, a estimé Gene Munster, du cabinet Loup Ventures, dans une note.
Richard Greenfield, analyste chez BTIG, a confiance en Facebook malgré ces prévisions pessimistes: “Le téléphone portable conquiert le monde et Facebook est au centre pour tirer profit de ce changement”.
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