Mais que se passe-t-il en Algérie? L’annonce de la nouvelle candidature d’Abdelaziz Bouteflika à l’élection présidentielle du 18 avril prochain a provoqué de nombreuses manifestations demandant le départ du Président sortant, en poste depuis 1999. d’après Sputnik qui est entretenu avec Brahim Oumansour, spécialiste du Maghreb à l’IRIS.
Des milliers de personnes à Alger, Paris et Genève. L’ampleur des manifestations s’opposant à Abdelaziz Bouteflika stupéfie, ravit et inquiète. Le 3 mars, le Président algérien déposera sa candidature pour un nouveau mandat, malgré d’importants rassemblements de la jeunesse algérienne. Est-ce l’éclosion d’un nouveau Printemps arabe? Quelles pourraient être les conséquences de son éventuel renversement? Une nouvelle guerre civile, le risque djihadiste ou le spectre d’une nouvelle vague massive de migrants sur l’Europe? Sputnik s’est entretenu avec Brahim Oumansour, spécialiste du Maghreb et chercheur associé à l’IRIS, l’Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques.
Vincent Jauvert, généralement bien informé, révélait le 24 février dans L’OBS; certaines inquiétudes au plus niveau de l’État français sur une possible déstabilisation du pouvoir algérien. Quelques éléments sensibles ressortaient, notamment les importations de gaz, les risques d’une vague d’immigration massive ainsi que la menace djihadiste. Selon Le Parisien, qui cite Mohamed Sifaoui, Emmanuel Macron en personne aurait donné son accord pour un cinquième mandat de Bouteflika.
Quand il s’agit des pays du Maghreb, n’exagère-t-on pas les mouvements de foule en pensant immédiatement aux Printemps arabes? Pour Brahim Oumansour, si ces manifestations spontanées et inédites rappellent les évènements de 2011 en Tunisie ou en Libye, il préfère relativiser leur ampleur. Il note ainsi que les Algériens descendus dans les rues sont bien plus prudents:
«C’est pour la première fois au moins depuis 88 qu’il y a autant de manifestations au niveau national […] On n’est pas dans un déclenchement d’émeutes, mais une mobilisation spontanée qui a été lancée à travers les réseaux sociaux, de façon anonyme, mais avec un mot d’ordre, une mobilisation pacifique pour éviter toute dérive.»
Rappelant que toute manifestation est interdite en Algérie, le spécialiste du Maghreb estime que le gouvernement réagit pour le moment à ces mouvements de manière plutôt fine et ne s’inquiète pas pour sa pérennité:
«L’État est constitué de différentes Institutions, qui sont solides et structurées, même si le régime politique actuel est atteint, affaibli par la situation actuelle par la santé et la longévité du Président. On n’est pas dans une situation de blocage, mais il y a une absence de relève, de régénération de la classe politique […] On préfère prolonger la présidence de Bouteflika qu’une transition risquée.»
Comment expliquer cette relative retenue de la part des jeunes Algériens?
«La population algérienne est un peu vaccinée, d’abord par l’expérience vécue dans les années 90, la première expérience de transition démocratique en 88 qui a malheureusement dérivé vers le terrorisme. La deuxième expérience est plutôt actuelle pour les jeunes d’aujourd’hui, c’est le chaos libyen et syrien qu’on voit aujourd’hui. La population reste très prudente.»
Certes, les manifestants n’ont pas montré de virulence, mais selon Brahim Oumansour, ils dénoncent la longévité et l’affaiblissement du Président en poste depuis 1999. Un dirigeant de 81 ans qui a connu la colonisation française, la guerre d’Algérie, la décennie noire et qui n’est absolument pas en phase avec cette nation très jeune. En 2018, selon l’Office national des statistiques, 18,76 millions d’Algériens avaient moins de 25 ans, soit 45% de la population totale:
«La première revendication, c’est la fin du régime Bouteflika, le Président actuel. La plupart des manifestants sont en colère contre la candidature pour un cinquième mandat, qu’ils sentent comme une candidature de trop […] Cette revendication [s’exprime, nldr] sur fond de revendications sociopolitiques beaucoup plus larges. On a notamment une jeunesse, la classe moyenne, qui a des aspirations beaucoup plus ambitieuses.»
PARIS, FRANCE – 22 MARS
Face à Bouteflika, un candidat se dresse chez les jeunes, il s’agit de Rachid Nekkaz, bien connu en France pour payer les amendes des femmes qui portent la burqa. Il affirme avoir été placé en résidence surveillée. Mais représente-t-il un risque pour le pouvoir?
«Pas du tout! Il n’a pas de parti politique […], même s’il y a une jeunesse qui le suit et qui est en colère. Je ne pense pas qu’il soit une menace pour le régime, paradoxalement c’est le régime qui utilise ce genre de personnes pour se maintenir.»
Le gouvernement Bouteflika agite régulièrement le chiffon rouge du complot français ou de la guerre civile, comme celle qui a frappé dans les années 90. Alors que la diplomatie française s’est montrée extrêmement prudente sur le sujet, est-ce vraisemblable qu’Emmanuel Macron ait donné son feu vert pour une cinquième candidature de Bouteflika?
«Il y a toujours cette image de l’Algérie qui est toujours sous l’autorité française, que toute décision viendrait de Paris. Bien sûr, les relations entre les deux pays sont étroites, l’influence de la France n’est pas négligeable, mais ça m’étonnerait qu’une telle décision en Algérie viendrait de la France quand on connaît le souverainisme algérien, cette sensibilité algérienne d’autant plus vis-à-vis de la France, de l’ancien colonisateur.»
Si Brahim Oumansour juge les institutions solides, quelles seraient les conséquences géopolitiques d’une déstabilisation du pays pour la France et l’Europe? On parlerait en France d’une nouvelle vague de migrants et de djihadistes:
«Les conséquences seraient énormes au niveau national, régional et au-delà. […] la région est déjà très instable, le chaos en Libye, au Mali. L’Algérie joue un rôle important sur la stabilisation de la région en termes de lutte contre le terrorisme. C’est un partenaire clé […] Sur le plan géostratégique, c’est un pays producteur de pétrole, fournisseur de gaz et pour l’Europe et pour les pays de la région.
Donc une déstabilisation du pays mènera à une déstabilisation des pays voisins d’abord et aussi d’autres pays européens. On peut imaginer avec un tel scénario une crise migratoire majeure, un flux migratoire important d’Algériens qui passerait par le Maroc ou la Tunisie, ou qui pourraient ainsi déstabiliser ces deux pays […] Mais heureusement, ce scénario est très peu probable, l’État est globalement solide.»
Alors que la Syrie et la Libye ont sombré dans un chaos initié par des manifestations sociopolitiques qui ont enclenché un engrenage funeste, existe-t-il pour l’Algérie un tel risque djihadiste?
«On peut s’attendre à une recrudescence du terrorisme. Que ce soit à l’intérieur du pays ou à l’étranger, aux frontières aujourd’hui, notamment au Mali, dans les pays subsahariens [certains] pourraient être tentés par la fragilisation, de commettre des attentats, pour fragiliser et frapper encore plus.»
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